The elections are over and all is counted except for one seat that is going to a magisterial recount, 33-30 or 32-31 either way it was a close finish.The election proved, at least to me anyway, that Andrew has grown leaps and bounds and matured well politically but this will be his sternest test yet.
With at most a two seat majority, one when you exclude the speaker, Andrew will have to run a tight ship. He will have to appoint a small, young, knowledgeable and diverse cabinet all while placating those who are an immediate danger to him, never an easy task.
But it gets worse still, if the count remains 32-31 then he will have a Herculean task ahead of him. Excluding the speaker parliament would be split 31-31, he would then have to craft the cabinet mentioned above while ensuring that he gets a strong party whip.
All is not doom and gloom though, if Andrew plays his cards right he may come up trumps. If he can get through the budget and civil service reform then green shoots start to appear.
The PNP are not quite over the election as they still seem to think that recounts can save them, but once the last magisterial challenge is over the knives will be drawn. With no clear succession plan in place expect a free for all, the old guard refuses to budge while the young Turks are yet to anoint a potential challenger.
All of this bodes well for Andrew and the JLP. If he can survive the budget and civil service reform, and the PNP are still at civil war we can expect a snap election. Andrew if he has in fact matured will remember the JLP in the 90’s and how they were at constant war, and coincidentally that the PNP won three on the trot. People don’t like it when parties are at war, they are turned off as they feel there is no viable alternative, if as I expect the PNP goes through that drama I expect Andrew to act.
Most of this hinges on Andrew, he has to implement some of his proposals to cement public trust, he must name a new and diverse cabinet and he must play with the IMF. All of this is hard but doable, this moment, this parliamentary term will seal the fate of Andrew, the pretender or the Prince… can he hold it together?