Tag: War

Is Russia really the worlds biggest belligerent​?

Is Russia really the worlds biggest belligerent​?

The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming! That seems to be the refrain that we have been hearing over the past nine years, the constant mantra that the ‘Evil Empire’ is about to return and wreak havoc on the world that we haven’t seen since the days of Hitler. But how much of all of this talk of a Russian threat in the present let alone in the past is true and how much of it is propaganda? And more to the point if it is true and the Russians have all of this power (to influence the world’s peoples to vote for Le Pen and Trump for example)and are ready to pounce like a tiger why haven’t they made more of a mark in the almost twenty years since the rise of the ‘dastardly’ Putin?

The Russians have been aggressive in the past, that much is true and anyone who denies that must clearly be drinking too much vodka. Be it the bloody wars of expansion of Tsar Alexander II or Tsar Nicholas I both of whom had expansionist policies, the USSR that fought bloody battles in the early twentieth century to regain the nations that sought independence after the Revolution, the crushing of both the Hungarian and Chezc manipulations of Soviet orthodox communism and more recently the (contested because the evidence as to who started it is 50/50) the Georgian war we see where Russia in all of its iterations is an active player in world violence.

However, that is not the question at hand as all great powers indulge in the slaughter of those who are unfortunate not to be strong enough to deter them. The question is, are the Russians really this massive threat to world peace, are they aiming to destroy our way of life and dominate the world?

The answer to this question is clearly and obviously no, the Russians don’t have aims of being masters of the world anymore, and won’t have them again at least not during my lifetime. Proof of this can be found ironically in the hostilities that the former Russian empire, former USSR and Russia in its current iteration. All of the Russian wars of aggression have taken place in their own backyard or direct ‘sphere of influence’, in fact almost every war that Russia in all its iterations has been in its backyard. Again, yes the Russian do practice war, again they are a great power (whether we admit it or not is immaterial) and as such will engage in conflicts, but they are hardly the bogeyman to the world’s peace that we make them out to be and history shows that.

There is, however, a nation that is a serious threat to world peace, and it is one that has no respect for boundaries, they are a nation that has (and continues to) systematically destroy and dominate its backyard and when that is complete they then go on to destroy and dominate nations in other hemispheres. The nation I speak of course is nonother than the USA. The US has since 1945 been the main (if not sole if you take in the fact that the other great powers are American lackeys) sponsor and purveyor of violence in the world and the facts bear that out.

A brief look at the world from 1945-89 shows that the wars that have rocked the world were American wars, either involving them directly or through their stooges that make up the remaining great powers. Be it the Korean war (which the USSR deliberately avoided getting into), the Vietnamese war, or the countless wars in the Middle East we see the glaring absence of Russia (bar Syria) and the active involvement of the US and her allies. These are just the facts of life, go to Iraq or Venezuela, every region in the world has felt the effects of US might and military supremacy.

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Again this is not saying that Russia and its iterations haven’t or aren’t currently acting up. We see this in Ukraine (where Russian troops operate while one ‘leave’), the Baltics (Estonia has had its share of Russian cyber-attacks) or even Georgia (where an active war was fought), the Russians have an appetite for war, but it is (and this is no excuse) almost always in their own backyard, within its sphere of influence and always aiming to survive (if not come up trumps). The same can’t be said of the US as the war in Iraq has demonstrated, here we see a war that not only destroyed a nation and destabilised the Arab world, but also a war that directly led to the rise of ISIS and the refugees that now flock to the shores of (and also destabilising) her allies in particular and the rest of the world in general.

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The facts are that while Russia does commit violence, and even war crimes, they are nowhere near the extent of the US and almost never with the same range and scope (such as crossing continents and oceans to destroy nations). Russia makes up only 4% of global military expenditure, and that is a lot of cash, but a closer look shows that it is mainly for modernising and internal defence. The US, on the other hand, makes up a whopping 36% of global military expenditure, and as we know they spend it almost exclusively on building and maintaining their bases and troops and compounds in foreign lands.

2017 Military_Expenditure

The US and not Russia is the threat to world peace and stability, the US is the worlds largest (in term of military strength) and most powerful nation and they continually flex their muscles in both their region and also in regions further afield. We in the world are expected to believe that a nation that can’t even sort out its internal conflicts (and they have many) is waltzing around and destabilising the world (even to its own detriment) and that is madness, yet still people swallow it hook, line and sinker, especially since the Russians are alleged to have manipulated the US elections (and even here we see where the wheels on that drama are coming off).

Russia is not this world bogeyman out to destroy every liberal democracy, and they are not out looking to make themselves a global superpower again (they know those days are gone and are content with being simply a great power). Yes, they do commit some strange and often times outrageous things, but when looked at more closely one sees where the Russian moves are primarily of a defensive purpose, but also not aimed to destabilise the world while staying in its region. Again this is not a blanket defence of the Russians, they do have a vested interest in maintaining dominance in the East European region, but they stretch no further. The Americans and their allies are playing a con on the world’s people and we seem to be falling for it, lets hope not, for while the Russians may not share the West’s views on societal and governmental structure and implementation they do have good ideas and offer a differing perspective on the world, to lose that due to lies and misinformation would be most upsetting and further destabilise the world.

 

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American saber rattling may cost South Korea deeply.

North Korea is a renegade state, a state run by madmen and where poverty and desperation are the daily realities of life, it is a nation that on the face of it will collapse at any time once enough pressure is applied to them. That is the opinion of the average American pundit as they openly call for a conflict that hardly anyone in Asia wants. We see American rhetoric spouted about how poor the DPRK is and how the nation would collapse within a few months or weeks of invasion.

The persons pushing for a war (or rather the resumption of the Korean war) have no ties to Asia and have no empathy as it relates to looking at a potential enemy. Any amount of empathetic thinking would lead us to stop this mad rush to war.

Time for some empathy. Imagine if you can, a nation (North Korea) totally leveled during the Korean war. Bombers were ordered to destroy any and everything and they followd through on those orders, bombing houses to rubble, destroying road networks and even (to top it all off) destroyed the waterworks such as dams and leveys. Imagine living through that hell as the entire nation turns to dust and ash, then imagine that the military that caused your nation much suffering is located just south of your border, with all sorts of fancy arms to boot.

Imagine living in a country where your neighbor holds yearly military exercises doing mock invasions of your country, and finally imagine that again, right on your border, the enemy that caused so much destruction had, and may have again, nuclear weapons pointed directly at you. How would you react? Would you not seek to defend yourself, regardless of it is real or imagined?

That is the reality of the North Korean situation, hemmed in on all sides by forces that really wish to make a radical change as to how the nation operates. With all of this in mind, it is pretty easy to empathize with the DPRK. They are a nation that is terrified of the outside and the US in particular (and with serious grounds for that fear) and it is easy to understand then why they have for so long pushed for a nuclear arsenal, to act as a deterrent against potential invaders.

However we do not have that empathy and instead state boldly and loudly that the DPRK must stop missile testing in the face of mock invasions. We have no empathy and are being lead to  a conflict that i fear we haven’t even thought through the serious consequences that we would face.

The DPRK as things stand, if invaded or bombed, would immediately use the missiles pointed at Seoul, in short, after the opening salvo the South Koreans would already be the losers. As things stand, if any force (external) directly invades the North, then we can almost certainly bank on China giving them reluctant support, because the Chinese would never entertain, and are fearful of having a US client state right on its border, which is what is already being planed for and prepared by these annual military exercises.

To go around making bellicose statements about how the US can and is considering ‘decapitating’ the regime of the DPRK is sheer madness if one wishes to see a peaceful and stable East Asia. To not realize that the DPRK is a garrison nation on watch 24/7 for the potential (or resumption of) conflicts is insane from any point of view, if as suspected the DPRK successfully tested an ICBM that would leave Juno Alaska in ruins it would be a total disservice to the people of South Korea and Japan who would bear the brunt of any North Korean retaliation.

Now these are just facts, hard and cold, but facts nonetheless and these are facts that seem to be lost in the ether as the world lurches towards yet another conflict (or total calamity). The North Koreans are not looking for a conflict, it is accepted as a fact that the nuclear and missile programs are for defensive purposes. Whether the threat is real or perceived (and the US has a proven track record in the regime changing game) it is clear that the North Koreans are ready to respond to the threat.

We in the west must see the world from the point of view of the DPRK leadership. They are paranoid (and who wouldn’t be if one day the nation that sponsors you collapses) and right now only seeks self preservation through the propaganda that they release to the North Korean public and the army that they lavishly spend on (to ensure that the generals dont mutiny) we see where self preservation is key to the state.

Now one doesn’t have to like how the DPRK government acts as it relates to human rights and the treatment of its citizens to see that a conflict with them is pointless and may actually cost us more in ways we cant imagine. We as a global community must ensure that no war happens on the Korean peninsula, as i fear that the carnage that this probable conflict would cause will make the Korean war look like a cake walk. We as such must ensure that even while we chastise them for their failure to live up to human rights conventions etc. that they are not totally shut out and ostracized because that will only lead to the regime doubling down on its military capabilities.

Instead we should both kill them with soft power and be patient. Patient for the day that the average North Korean citizen wakes up and realizes that the world is bigger than what the state run media houses say. We must wait for the day that the average North Korean decides to take their destiny in there own hands, in short we must leave them alone and allow that nation to grow at its own pace. The thirst for conflict in the Pacific is real and the situation in the DPRK has a lot of people on tenterhooks, but if we allow the persons living there to decide their own path then we can see the change in government that the west so often calls for. To do anything otherwise up to and including attacking them is pointless and selfish, if we really care about the plight of the North Koreans and want to see them live a better life then the threats must be removed, if not we may as well kiss the Koreas goodbye because any conflict there will end in the total destruction of both nations.